"Should the ECB Adjust its Strategy in the Face of a Lower r*?"
Forthcoming in Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 2021
"Quantitative Economic Geography meets History: Questions, Answers and Challenges"
Forthcoming in Regional Science and Urban Economics, 2021
"International Spillovers and Local Credit Cycles"
Forthcoming in The Review of Economic Studies, 2021
"Optimal Lockdown in a Commuting Network"
Forthcoming in American Economic Review: Insights, 2021
"Collateral Booms and Information Depletion"
Forthcoming in The Review of Economic Studies, 2021
"Aggregate Dynamics in Lumpy Economies"
Forthcoming in Econometrica, 2021
"Investment Demand and Structural Change"
Forthcoming in Econometrica, 2021
"Forecasting in the Presence of Instabilities: How Do We Know Whether Models Predict Well and How to Improve Them"
Forthcoming in Journal of Economic Literature, 2021
"Uncovered Interest Parity, Forward Guidance and the Exchange Rate"
Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 2021, 52(S2), 465-496
"Winners and Losers from Sovereign Debt Inflows"
Journal of International Economics, 2021, 130, article 103446
"Local Sectoral Specialization in a Warming World"
Forthcoming in Journal of Economic Geography, 2021
"Identifying and Estimating the Effects of Unconventional Monetary Policy in the Data: How to Do It And What Have We Learned?"
Forthcoming in The Econometrics Journal, 2021
"Confidence Intervals for Bias and Size Distortions in IV and Local Projections-IV Models"
Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, 2021, 39 (1), 307-324
"Aggregation and Design of Information in Asset Markets with Adverse Selection"
Journal of Economic Theory, 2021, 191, 1-49
"Balance Sheet Channel with Information-Trading Frictions in Secondary Markets"
The Review of Economic Studies, 2021, 88(1), 44-90
"Evaluating the Economic Cost of Coastal Flooding"
American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, 2021, 13(2), 444-486
"Optimal Policy with General Signal Extraction"
Journal of Monetary Economics, 2021, 18, 54-86
"On Public Spending and Economic Unions"
IMF Economic Review, 2021, 69 (1), 122-154
"The Vanishing Procyclicality of Labour Productivity"
The Economic Journal, 2021, 131(1), 302-326
"Comments on ‘The Fiscal and Monetary History of Ecuador: 1950-2015’, by S. Cueva and J. Díaz"
The Monetary and Fiscal History of Latin America, 2021, University of Minnesota Press
"Comments on “Boosting Fiscal Space: The Roles of GDP-Linked Debt and Longer Maturities” by J. I. Kim and J. D. Ostry"
Forthcoming in Economic Policy, 2021
"Understanding the Size of the Government Spending Multiplier: It’s in the Sign"
Forthcoming in The Review of Economic Studies, 2021
"Monetary Policy for a Bubbly World"
Forthcoming in The Review of Economic Studies, 2021
Read a non-technical summary on VOXEU
"On the Direct and Indirect Real Effects of Credit Supply Shocks"
Forthcoming in Journal of Financial Economics, 2021
"Comments on: “What Drives Aggregate Investment? Evidence from German Survey Data”"
Forthcoming in Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 2021
"Cyclical Fluctuations, Financial Shocks, and the Entry of Fast-Growing Entrepreneurial Startups"
Forthcoming in Review of Financial Studies, 2021
"The Financial Transmission of Housing Booms: Evidence from Spain"
American Economic Review, 2021, 111(3), 1013-1053
Read a non-technical summary on VOXEU
"Local Adjustment to Immigrant-Driven Labor Supply Shocks"
Forthcoming in Journal of Human Capital, 2021
Previously circulated as “Immigration, Internal Migration, and Technology Adoption”
"Securing Property Rights"
Forthcoming in Journal of Political Economy, 2021
"Book Review: The Great Reversal, by Thomas Philippon"
Forthcoming in Journal of Economic Literature, 2021
"Optimal Fiscal Policy without Commitment: Revisiting Lucas-Stokey"
Forthcoming in Journal of Political Economy, 2021
"Comments on The Fiscal-Monetary Policy Mix in the Euro Area: Challenges at the Zero Lower Bound"
Forthcoming in Economic Policy, 2021
"Comments on ” ‘Azar and Vives’ Walras-Bowley Lecture”"
Forthcoming in Econometrica, 2021
"Monetary Policy and Bubbles in a New Keynesian Model with Overlapping Generations"
American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, 2021, 13(2), 121-167
"Insider-Outsider Labor Markets, Hysteresis and Monetary Policy"
Forthcoming in Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 2021
"Comments on “Diverging Trends in National and Local Concentration”, by E. Rossi-Hansberg, P. Sarte and N. Thatcher"
Forthcoming in NBER Macroeconomics Annual, 2021, 35
"Investor Experiences and Financial Market Dynamics"
Journal of Financial Economics, 2020, 136(3), 597-622
"Comments on ‘Why is the Euro punching below its weight?’ by E. Ilzetzki, C. Reinhart and K. Rogoff"
Economic Policy, 2020, 35(3)
"Comments on ‘Friendly fire: the trade impact of the Russia sanctions and counter-sanctions’ by M. Crozet, J. Hins"
Economic Policy, 2020, 35(101), 127-130
"Identifying the Sources of Model Misspecification"
Journal of Monetary Economics, 2020, 110, 1-18
"Gains from Wage Flexibility and the Zero Lower Bound"
Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 2020, 82(6), 1239-1261
"Immigration and Wage Dynamics: Evidence from the Mexican Peso Crisis"
Journal of Political Economy, 2020, 128 (8), 3017-3089
"Can Global Uncertainty Promote International Trade?"
Journal of International Economics, 2020, 126, 1-19
"Optimal Transport Networks in Spatial Equilibrium"
Econometrica, 2020, 88 (4), 1411-1452
"Investor Experiences and International Capital Flows"
Journal of International Economics, 2020, 124, 1-19
"On the Empirical (Ir)Relevance of the Zero Lower Bound Constraint"
NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2019, 2020, 34, 141-170
"Securitization, Ratings, and Credit Supply"
Journal of Finance, 2020, 75 (2), 1037-1082
"A Theory of Economic Unions"
Journal of Monetary Economics, 2020, 109, 107-127
"Has the U.S. Wage Phillips Curve Flattened? A Semi-Structural Exploration"
2020, 149-172
in G. Castex, J. Gali and D. Saravia (eds.) Changing Inflation Dynamics, Evolving Monetary Policy, Central Bank of Chile
"The Rise of Market Power and the Macroeconomic Implications"
Quarterly Journal of Economics, 2020, 135(2), 561-644 (lead article)
"Competing Teams"
The Review of Economic Studies, 2020, 87(3), 1134-1173
"Growing like Spain: 1995-2007"
International Economic Review, 2020, 61 (1), 383-416
"The Optimal Inflation Target and the Natural Rate of Interest"
Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, 2020, Fall, 173-230
VOX CEPR, 1/10/2019
"The Effects of a Money-Financed Fiscal Stimulus"
Journal of Monetary Economics, 2020, 115, 1-19
"Sharing a Government"
Journal of the European Economic Association, 2019, 17 (6), 1723-1752
"Unemployment Cycles"
American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, 2019, 11(4), 175-234
"Liquidity Sentiments"
American Economic Review, 2019, 109 (11), 3813-3848
"Priors about Observables in Vector Autoregressions"
Journal of Econometrics, 2019, 209 (2), 238-255
"Recursive Contracts"
Econometrica, 2019, 87 (5), 1589-1631
"How Segregated is Urban Consumption?"
Journal of Political Economy, 2019, 127 (4), 1684-1738
"Minimum Wages and Spatial Equilibrium: Theory and Evidence"
Journal of Labor Economics, 2019, 37 (3), 853-904
"The Paradox of Global Thrift"
American Economic Review, 2019, 109 (11), 3745-3779
Read a non-technical summary on VoxEU
Read a non-technical summary on VoxEU
"Alternative Tests for Correct Specification of Conditional Forecast Densities"
Journal of Econometrics, 2019, 208 (2), 638-657
"Firing the Wrong Workers: Financing Constraints and Labor Misallocation"
Journal of Financial Economics, 2019, 133 (3), 589-607
Coverage: BGSE Focus, UPF e-news, ViaEmpresa
"Firm Uncertainty Cycles and the Propagation of Nominal Shocks"
American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, 2019, 11 (1), 276-337
"Government Debt Management: The Long and the Short of It"
The Review of Economic Studies, 2019, 86 (6), 2554-2604
"The Effects of Conventional and Unconventional Monetary Policy on Exchange Rates"
Journal of International Economics, 2019, 118, 419-447
"Competition and the Welfare Gains from Transportation Infrastructure: Evidence from the Golden Quadrilateral of India"
Journal of the European Economic Association, 2019, 17 (6), 1881-1940
"Learning by Lending"
Journal of Financial Intermediation, 2019, 37, 1-14
"Financing Constraints, Radical versus Incremental Innovation, and Aggregate Productivity"
American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, 2019, 11 (2), 275–309
Supplementary data and code to solve the model and replicate results
"Designing a Simple Loss Function for the Fed: Does the Dual Mandate Make Sense?"
The Economic Journal, 2019, 129 (621), 2010-2038
Read a non-technical summary on VoxEu
"Matching Information"
Theoretical Economics, 2018, 13, 377-414
"Uncertainty and Deviations from Uncovered Interest Rate Parity"
Journal of International Money and Finance, 2018, 88 (1), 242-259
"Comments on “The productivity puzzle and misallocation: An Italian perspective” by S. Calligaris, M. Del Gatto, F. Hassan, G. Ottaviano, and F. Schivardi"
Economic Policy, 2018, 33(96), 676-678
"From Final Goods to Inputs: The Protectionist Effect of Preferential Rules of Origin"
American Economic Review, 2018, 108 (8), 2335-2365
"Sorting in the Labor Market"
Annual Review of Economics, 2018, 10, 1-29
"The State of New Keynesian Economics: A Partial Assessment"
Journal of Economic Perspectives, 2018, 32 (3), 87-112
"Strength in Diversity? Fiscal Federalism among the Fifty US States"
International Tax and Public Finance, 2018, 25 (4), 1071-1091
"Stagnation Traps"
The Review of Economic Studies, 2018, 85 (3), 1425-1470
"The Geography of Development"
Journal of Political Economy, 2018, 126 (3), 903-983
"Banks, Government Bonds, and Default: What do the Data Say?"
Journal of Monetary Economics, 2018, 98, 98-113
"The Political Economy of Transportation Investment"
Economics of Transportation, 2018, 13, 4-26
"The Macroeconomics of Rational Bubbles. A User’s Guide"
Annual Review of Economics, 2018, 10 (1), 505-539
"The Welfare Consequences of Income-Induced Expenditure Switching"
American Economic Association: Papers & Proceedings, 2018, 108, 547-551
"Assortative Matching with Large Firms"
Econometrica, 2018, 86(1), 85-132
"The Micro Origins of International Business-Cycle Comovement"
American Economic Review, 2018, 108 (1), 82-108
"Agricultural Risk and the Spread of Religious Communities"
Journal of the European Economic Association, 2018, 16 (4), 1021-1068
"International Debt Deleveraging"
Journal of the European Economic Association, 2018, 16 (5), 1394-1432
"Uncertainty and Unemployment"
Econometrica, 2017, 85 (6), 1675-1721
Previously circulated as: Uncertainty Productivity and Unemployment in the Great Recession
"Uncertainty Traps"
Quarterly Journal of Economics, 2017, 132 (4), 1641-1692
"Optimal Time-Consistent Government Debt Maturity"
Quarterly Journal of Economics, 2017, 132 (1), 55-102
"The Downside of Asset Screening for Market Liquidity"
Journal of Finance, 2017, 72 (5), 1937-1982
"Asia’s Geographic Development"
Asian Development Review, 2017, 34(2), 1-24
"Large Firms and International Business Cycle Comovement"
American Economic Review: Papers & Proceedings, 2017, 107 (5), 598-602
"The Labor Market Consequences of Refugee Supply Shocks"
Economic Policy, 2017, 32 (91), 361-413
"Macroeconomic Uncertainty Indices for the Euro Area and its Individual Member Countries"
Empirical Economics, 2017, 53 (1), 41-62
"Stock Price Booms and Expected Capital Gains"
American Economic Review, 2017, 107 (8), 2352-2408
"Sorting through Search and Matching Models in Economics"
Journal of Economic Literature, 2017, 55(2), 493-544
"Capital Flows and the International Credit Channel"
Journal of International Economics, 2017, 108 (Supplement 1), S15-S22
"Rolling Window Selection for Out-of-sample Forecasting with Time-varying Parameters"
Journal of Econometrics, 2017, 196 (1), 55-67
"Understanding the Gains from Wage Flexibility: The Exchange Rate Connection"
American Economic Review, 2016, 106 (12), 3829-3868
"Forecasting Unemployment across Countries: the Ins and Outs"
European Economic Review, 2016, 84, 165-183
Special Issue on European Unemployment
"Declining Desire to Work and Downward Trends in Unemployment and Participation"
2015 NBER Macroeconomics Annual, 2016, 30, 449-494
"How Credible is the Federal Reserve: A Structural Estimation of Policy Re-optimizations"
American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, 2016, 8 (3), 42-76
"Income-Induced Expenditure Switching"
American Economic Review, 2016, 106 (12), 3898-3931
"Infrastructure, Incentives, and Institutions"
American Economic Review: Papers & Proceedings, 2016, 106 (5), 77-82
"Forecast Rationality Tests in the Presence of Instabilities, With Applications to Federal Reserve and Survey Forecasts"
Journal of Applied Econometrics, 2016, 31 (3), 507-532
"Urban Networks: Connecting Markets, People and Ideas"
Papers in Regional Science, 2016, 95 (1), 17-59
Link to a presentation by G. Ponzetto at the CERGE-EI “Economics of Livable Cities” Conference held in Prague on 14 March 2016 from minute 50 onwards
"Political Centralization and Government Accountability"
Quarterly Journal of Economics, 2016, 131 (1), 381-422
"Stock Market Volatility and Learning"
Journal of Finance, 2016, 71 (1), 33-82
"Rethinking the Effects of Financial Globalization"
Quarterly Journal of Economics, 2016, 131 (3), 1497-1542
"Managing Credit Bubbles"
Journal of the European Economic Association, 2016, 14 (3), 753-789
"Can a Financial Transaction Tax Prevent Stock Price Booms?"
Journal of Monetary Economics, 2015, 76 (Suplement), S90-S109
"Distortions and the Size Distribution of Plants: Evidence from Cross-Country Data"
SERIES: Journal of the Spanish Economic Association, 2015, 6 (3), 279-312
"Common Value Experimentation"
Journal of Economic Theory, 2015, 160, 317-339
"Offshoring and Directed Technical Change"
American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, 2015, 7 (3), 84-112
Read a non-technical summary on VoxEU
"Financial Crises and Exchange Rate Policy"
Journal of International Economics, 2015, 95(2), 202-215
"A Global View of Cross-Border Migration"
Journal of the European Economic Association, 2015, 13 (1), 168-202
"Labor Market Heterogeneity and the Aggregate Matching Function"
American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, 2015, 7 (4), 222-249
"The Effects of Monetary Policy on Stock Market Bubbles: Some Evidence"
American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, 2015, 7 (1), 233-257
"The International Transmission of Credit Bubbles: Theory and Policy"
Journal of Monetary Economics, 2015, 76 (S), S37-S56
"Large Capital Inflows, Sectoral Allocation, and Economic Performance"
Journal of International Money and Finance, 2015, 55, 60-87
"Monetary regime-switches and central bank preferences"
Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 2014, 46 (8), 1591-1626
"One Effect to Rule them All? A Comment on Climate and Conflict"
Climatic Change, 2014, 127 (3-4), 391-397
"The Reservation Laws in India and the Misallocation of Production Factors"
Journal of Monetary Economics, 2014, 66, 193-209
"Diverse Organizations and the Competition for Talent"
International Economic Review, 2014, 55(3), 625-664
"Shrouded Costs of Government: The Political Economy of State and Local Public Pensions"
Journal of Public Economics, 2014, 116, 89-105
"The Financial Resource Curse"
The Scandinavian Journal of Economics, 2014, 116 (1), 58-86
"Spatial Sporting"
Journal of Political Economy, 2014, 122(3), 554-620
"Cities, Skills and Regional Change"
Regional Studies, 2014, 48 (1), 7-43
"Loose Commitment in Medium-Scale Macroeconomic models: Theory and Applications"
Macroeconomic Dynamics, 2014, 18 (1), 175-198
"Lack of Commitment and the Level of Debt"
Journal of the European Economic Association, 2013, 11 (5), 1053-1078
"The Impact of Debt Levels and Debt Maturity on Inflation"
The Economic Journal, 2013, 123 (566), F164-F192
"Financing Constraints, Firm Dynamics, Export Decisions and Aggregate Productivity"
Review of Economic Dynamics, Special Issue on Misallocation and Productivity, 2013, 16 (1), 177-193
"House Price Booms and the Current Account"
NBER Macroeconomics Annual, 2012, 26 (1), 77-122
"Stare Decisis: Rhetoric and Substance"
Journal of Law, Economics and Organization, 2012, 28 (2), 313-336
"Occupational Choice and Development"
Journal of Economic Theory, 2012, 147(2), 657-683
"Identifying Sorting – In Theory"
The Review of Economic Studies, 2011, 78, 872-906
"Internal Rationality, Imperfect Market Knowledge and Asset Prices"
Journal of Economic Theory, 2011, 146 (3), 1224-1252
"Sorting and Decentralized Price Competition"
Econometrica, 2010, 78(2), 539-574
"In Search of a Theory of Debt Management"
Journal of Monetary Economics, 2010, 57 (7), 821-836
"Did the Death of Distance Hurt Detroit and Help New York?"
2010
In E. L. Glaeser (Ed..), Agglomeration Economics, Chicago, IL: University of Chicago Press, 2010, 303-337
"A Theory of Optimal Crackdowns"
American Economic Review, 2010, 100, 1104-1135
"Fiscal Policy under Loose Commitment"
Journal of Economic Theory, 2010, 145 (3), 1005-1032
"Sorting vs Screening: Search Frictions and Competing Mechanisms"
Journal of Economic Theory, 2010, 145, 1354-1385
"Matching in Informal Financial Institutions"
Journal of the European Economic Association, 2010, 8(5), 947-988
"Supply Side Interventions and Redistribution"
The Economic Journal, 2010, 120 (543), 105-130
"Clusters of Entrepreneurship"
Journal of Urban Economics, 2010, 67 (1), 150-168
"Bargaining over Public Goods"
Journal of Public Economic Theory, 2009, 11(6), 927-945
"Gibrat’s Law for (All) Cities: Reply"
American Economic Review, 2009, 99, 1676-1683
"Debt and Deficit Fluctuations and the Structure of Bond Markets"
Journal of Economic Theory, 2009, 144 (2), 473-501
"Case Law versus Statute Law: An Evolutionary Comparison"
Journal of Legal Studies, 2008, 37 (2), 379-430
"Fiscal Insurance and Debt Management in OECD Economies"
The Economic Journal, 2008, 118 (527), 363-386
"Competitive Bargaining Equilibrium"
Journal of Economic Theory, 2008, 139(1), 269-294
"Incomplete Markets, Labor Supply and Capital Accumulation"
Journal of Monetary Economics, 2007, 54 (8), 2621-2635
"Why Does Democracy Need Education?"
Journal of Economic Growth, 2007, 12 (2), 77-99
"Minorities and Endogenous Segregation"
The Review of Economic Studies, 2006, 73(1), 31-53
"Strategic Extremism: Why Republicans and Democrats Divide on Religious Values"
Quarterly Journal of Economics, 2005, 120 (4), 1283-1330
"Money and Prices in Models of Bounded Rationality in High-Inflation Economies"
Review of Economic Dynamics, 2005, 8 (2), 452-479
"Analisi comparativa dell’onerosità dei prodotti previdenziali individuali"
2004
A Comparative Analysis of the Costs of Individual Pension Products, Mercato, Concorrenza, Regole, 5 (2), 2004, 297–328
"The Market for Annuities in Italy: Reality or Chimera?"
2004
In E. Fornero and E. Luciano (Eds.), Developing an Annuity Market in Europe, Cheltenham: Edward Elgar, 2004, 262-290
"Gibrat’s Law for (All) Cities"
American Economic Review, 2004, 94(5), 1429-1451
"Recurrent Hyperinflations and Learning"
American Economic Review, 2003, 93 (5), 1476-1498
"Recurrent Hyperinflations and Learning"
American Economic Review, 2003, 93 (5), 1476-1498
"Optimal Taxation without State-Contingent Debt"
Journal of Political Economy, 2002, 110 (6), 1220-1254
"Financial Constraints on Investments: A Three-pillar Approach"
Research Economics, 2001, 55 (2), 219-254
"Effects of Index Option Introduction on Stock Index Volatility: A Procedure for Empirical Testing Based on SSC-GARCH Models"
Applied Financial Economics, 2000, 10 (3), 323-341
"Equilibrium Asset Prices and Savings of Heterogeneous Agents in the Presence of Incomplete Markets and Portfolio Constraints"
Macroeconomic Dynamics, 1999, 3 (2), 243-277
"Parameterized Expectations Approach; Some Practical Issues"
1999
in R. Marimon and A. Scott (Eds.) Computational Methods for the Study of Dynanic Economies, Oxford University Press, 1999, 143-171
"Speed of Convergence of Recursive Least Squares Learning with ARMA Perceptions"
1995
in A. Kirman and M. Salmon, (Eds.), Learning and Rationality in Economics, B. Blackwell Publishers, 1995, chapter 6, 179-215.
"Simulation Analysis of Stochastic Dynamic Models: Applications to Theory and Estimation"
1994
in C. A. Sims (Ed.), Advances in Econometrics, Sixth World Congress, Volume 2, Cambridge University Press, 1994, 81-118.
"Accuracy in Simulations"
The Review of Economic Studies, 1994, 61 (1), 3-17
"Growth, Capital Flows and Enforcement Constraints: The Case of Africa"
European Economic Review, 1993, 37 (2-3), 418-425
"Communication, Commitment, and Growth"
Journal of Economic Theory, 1992, 58 (2), 219-249
"The Convergence of Vector Auto-Regressions to Rational Expectations Equilibrium"
1992
In A. Vercelli and N. Dimitri (Eds.), Macroeconomics, a Strategic Survey, Oxford University Press, 1992, 139-164.
"Temporal Aggregation of Economic Time Series"
1991
in T. J. Sargent and L. P. Hansen (Eds.), Rational Expectations Econometrics, Westview Press, 1991, 237-281.
"Solving the Stochastic Growth Model by Parameterizing Expectations"
Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, 1990, 8 (1), 31-34
"Convergence of Least-Squares Learning in Environments with Hidden State Variables and Private Information"
Journal of Political Economy, 1989, 97 (6), 1306-1322
"Convergence of Least Squares Learning Mechanisms in Self-Referential Linear Stochastic Models"
Journal of Economic Theory, 1989, 48 (2), 337-368
"Least-Squares Learning and the Dynamics of Hyperinflation"
1989
in W. Barnett, J. Geweke and K. Shell (Eds.) Proceedings of the 4th International Symposium in Economic Theory and Econometrics, Cambridge University Press, 1989, 119-137
"The Fate of Systems with ‘Adaptive’ Expectations"
American Economic Review, 1988, 78 (2), 168-172
"Information Spillovers in Asset Markets with Correlated Values"
Published in American Economic Review, 2017, 107 (7), 2007-2040
"Unites States"
Fiscal Federalism: Comparative Experiences and Challenges, Forum of Federations, Ottawa, Canada, forthcoming